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Monday, August 8, 2011

2011 Leadville 100 Predictions

The product of my last post was a list of 24 runners who are all viable threats for a top-10 finish at the Leadville 100 this year. After debating these names and accompanying resumes, have whittled the list down to my official top-10 prediction. Originally I thought I'd be able to put times with the names, but that was much easier said than done. I've taken a stab at the times - specifically, windows of time - but for the most part just focused on the placement.

With no further ado, here is my prediction:
  1. Parr (17:30-ish)
  2. Bowman (17-high)
  3. Callahan (17-high)
  4. Burch (Mid-18)
  5. Sandes (Mid-18)
  6. Gorman (Mid-18)
  7. Anderson (Mid-18)
  8. Arnstein (18-high)
  9. Vega (18-high)
  10. Williams (18-high)
In all honesty, it was hard to include my name on this list, but I think I have a fast time in me this year, and am overdue for a top-10 at a 100-miler after finishes of 12th and 11th last year (Rocky Raccoon and Leadville, respectively). If you take 'Williams' off the list, it truly is a toss-up between all the remaining names on my original list of 24. Specifically, I was having a hard time deciding between Garcia, Tremboli, Long, Harcrow, and Barger.

Pat and Brendan - Sorry to say this, but I am giving my 100 mile experience the advantage on this one, and consider it the equalizer. If this was a 50 miler, I wouldn't have picked myself to beat either of you.

Time-wise, without any of the high profile names (Roes, Krupicka, Clark, Jornet, Jones, etc.) running, I don't see anyone breaking 17 hours.

Now, enough of this armchair quarterbacking... bring on the real thing!

31 comments:

GZ said...

Perfect. Looking forward to seeing what the top ten are pre PPM as I sip a cup of joe.

brownie said...

Tim Long for the upset win!

Footfeathers said...

Thanks for the mention and accurate that I won't be in the first 10 if it takes an 18hr finish to be there. I agree with michael's comment on your previous post that 16:xx will be required for the win. I'm putting pressure on Dylan to win in 16:30. He's got it in him. Jeff Browning is one tough fast dude. Hard to believe he won't run top 10.
Enjoy your taper.

Anton said...

I would be quite surprised at a sub-17 clocking, especially a 16:30...then again, the course is ~20min faster than pre-2009 for the top runners. I think Tim is the only person who could have a shot at sub-17...but have no idea what kind of shape he's in. I think he was in sub-17 shape in '09 but it was hot and his pacing was atrocious.

Brooks, I think your top-3 are solid...they're the clear favorites here w/ 2 former champions. I'll be EXTREMELY surprised to see 10 dudes break 19 hours, though! It simply won't happen. 100mi is too messy for 10 guys to all have A-races.

Sandes will be in the mix for a very long time but is a wild-card as it's his first 100mi. He could win. No disrespect to Burch and Arnstein but I think simply finishing would be huge for Ryan and sub-20 for Mike.

Dan V was in quite good shape early in the year, but I haven't seen much from him recently...I think you can probably take him Brooks. I agree on your assessment of who wins btwn you, Pat, and Brendan...experience does count and you've been having a really solid year. I wouldn't be surprised if you were 6th or 7th. But, if Brendan has a smooth-ish race I could see him being right around 19-flat.

I would bet on Harry being top-10, and probably Bronco, too.

Anton said...

Oh yes, also, Zach Crandall could def bust out a good one (top-10), but again, first-timer wild card.

PatrickGarcia said...

I may not make top 10, but if you are beating me, I've instructed my crew to "deal with it" so as to save face...

brownie said...

Isn't Vega running Leadville AND the PPM? If so I doubt he will be all out, probably run 22ish. But I haven't seen him in a while, so his plans may have changed.

Gangels said...

I'm calling Neal Gorman for the win in 17:45! Not to disrespect, but I am also going to guess that only three of your top ten will be in the top ten.

Brett said...

Tim Waggoner was something like 5th or 6th last year and was over 19h.

koop said...

I'm gonna miss you boys out there! Have a killer race Brooks. I'll be hobbling around rooting you on! Don't discount Gorman. He's fit and very determined right now.

Dylan Bowman said...

Ha! No chance I go 16:30, though I appreciate the vote of confidence Tim.

Parr breaks 17. Barely. And only if he hits Winfield slower than the 7:29.

Duncan leads on top of Sugarloaf inbound and Burch is top five (or better) with an overdue breakout performance.

I'm definitely scared of Neal Gorman...

Footfeathers said...

Great call, Todd. Neal's been laying it out there this year. Not tethered by the grand slam, you gotta think he's coming to this LT fresh and going for it. Dylan's still my boy. He ran well at SD100 and I firmly believe that's a more difficult course than LT, maybe by 1.5 hours for a front runner. LT was his first 100 after only running ultras for ONE year. Yeah, consistent and improves nearly every race.

Just happy it's an out n back so I can see the action coming at me while I trot along far behind...

Brooks said...

I dig all the feedback! Especially, since this is all we have to tide us over for the next week and a half until the real fun begins.

Tony: Thanks for the vote of confidence. Are you going to be up there crewing/spectating?

Dan V is making Leadville his 'A' race this year, and has been training like an animal, so I can't discount him.

JT: I believe Matt has a bib number for Dan if he really does want to do the PPM the next day, which I doubt he will even consider.

Todd: I'd ask which three you agree on, but I don't want to get my feelings hurt!!

Patrick: With all these legitimate bad-asses racing this year, maybe the real smack-talking should just be between you, Tim Long, Brendan, and me! I seriously expect us to be close all day.

GZ said...

I am inclined to agree with Todd. Ultras as they are, I am willing to say there are at least four guys who pop the top ten that have not been mentioned on this thread (but probably the prior one)

GZ said...

Crap - also meant to say, five guys here on this list who don't crack 20. No crack against them - that is just the way these races seem to be.

Every year I get amped up as PPA, PPM having possibly the best field ever. On paper it looks that way ... but shit happens on race day. Same thing here.

PatrickGarcia said...

Oh. I ran into Neil on Hope 2 weekends ago and he looked and sounded great. He's been in CO for weeks and will be ready to lay down a fast tme. I would take him and DBow for top 3.

Gangels said...

Brooks,
I couldn't pick the three if I wanted. As GZ already eluded too, it is just how the game is played. Without a clear pace setter (ie. Tony) I reckon the pace will be a little hot out front and some damage will ensue. That leaves plenty of people who are running conservative races to fill in the slots. My gut feeling is out of all the front runners Neil is the smartest and most solid at the distance. That is why I love 100 mile races, its always a crap shoot.
Good luck, I'll be rooting for you along the course.
Todd

Nick said...

Burch, Burch, Burch. Just ran with him at lunch, and he's in it to win it. Browning second, Callahan third.

Harry will be puking by Hope Pass outbound.

Sandes and Parr will run each other into the ground early and then blow up in dramatic fashion. May Queen in 1:36. Finish in 20+ for one, DNF for the other.

Williams charges late from FH, picking up carnage for a break-out fourth-place finish.

Gorman runs his typical steady eddie race and finishes fifth, just edging out D.Bow, Arnstein and Sweeney who engage in an all out sprint from the red carpet.

Trimboli takes top rookie honors, finishing eighth, while Vega hobbles in for ninth and Fuller runs the race of his life for a 20:15 tenth place.

Clark is happy to be going to France but is secretly wishing he was running Leadville where they don't force you to wear waterproof underpants while carrying enough food to survive in the wilderness for two months - just in case you get lost and it rains.

There it is. No need to run the race now.

GZ said...

Nick enjoying more of that birthday beverage I see ...

coach dion said...

I think it is going to be very close for very long... Go Ryan Go

Rod Bien said...

I don't know all the Colorado guys but I have to pick Jeff Browning for the win. If it was a 50K, he wouldn't be in the top 10 but he owns 100s. 3 time winner of Bighorn, CR at Cascade (18:40ish there is stout), Arkansas, Irroquois, he just wins 100s. He may not have the leg speed of the top guys but his toughness and ability to run even splits in 100s is rarely matched. Don't say I didn't tell ya so!

Footfeathers said...

Altitude is big (hence the reason carpenter owns the record by a large margin and Anton could own the race if he wanted) Leadville is a mixture of leg speed, immunity to thin air, and patience. Bronco is one of the toughest 100 milers but it takes someone who can run fast at 10-12k ft for a 100. He'll still be in the top 10. I'll take my lumps like a man I I'm wrong.

Rod Bien said...

Browning (aka Bronco) has been in an altitude tent for the last 6 weeks......

Footfeathers said...

We'll have to rename him Bubble Billy. With that kind of focus, I fear for the other front runners!

PatrickGarcia said...

If Bronco pulls it off it'd be the first time in a looooong time that someone from outside Colorado won it.

Brooks said...

Nick:
I'm not gonna lie, I like your prediction the best of all! In all honesty though, I'm not going to worry about placement and just want to focus on my own race vs. the clock... (while crossing my fingers for carnage up front!)

Fingers crossed for an epic Burch run!

Feets of Pedestrianism said...

Mark Mobley, Liz Howard. Potential top 10's.

Footfeathers said...

Liza isn't running it.

Running with MTP said...

Have a great race ... take care of your nutrition, hydration and electrolytes so your fitness and running talent can show itself.

My training has been a comedy of issues: Head injury, fractured Radial (Arm), Tweaked Achillies. Also a tradegy of letting myself be 220# for the race. So I will be still having fun long after you are sleeping.

Michael Henze
(RA-Dopplebock)

Jim P. said...

I'm looking for Trimboli to suprise some folks. Agree w/ Nick.

Anonymous said...

Well done to all especially to the winner Ryan Sandes. Anton,you predicted correctly. Your 1st blog you put up Ryan Sandes. Your 2nd blog you said he could win but 1st 100 miler.

Chris