Monday, January 30, 2012

2012 Rocky Raccoon Predictions

(1/30/12 - THIS JUST IN: Hal Koerner is now on the entrants list!)

The taper is on!
With nothing to do this week but geek out about running while not actually doing any running, I'll post my prediction for next weekends big race. This year's field is by far, much less competitive than 2011, with a couple notable exceptions, aka Ian Sharman (RR100 record holder), Karl Meltzer (Mr. Hardrock), and Oswaldo Lopez (2011 Badwater winner).

While fully expecting these guys to decimate the rest of the competition, it still puts me in a position to potentially snag my first top-10 finish at a 100 miler. For whatever reason, I have had relative success at the 50 mile distance, but these 100's still escape me.

With cautious optimism, here's how I predict the race unfolding:
  1. Ian Sharman; for obvious reasons. Predicted time: 13:12
  2. HAL KOERNER; last minute entrant and my obvious 2nd place choice. Predicted time: 13:24
  3. Karl Meltzer; he's a machine with more 100 mile experience than anyone else in the field. Predicted time: 14:14
  4. Oswaldo Lopez; not too familiar with this guy, but looking at past race times, I could see him running sub-15. Predicted time: 14:55
  5. Dan Vega; he beat Karl at a fast 100 miler last spring in 15:35. I think he'll be a little quicker here. Predicted time: 15:20
  6. Liza Howard; I see her continuing her streak of improved 100 miler times. Predicted time: 15:25.
  7. Tony Clark; he's run sub-17 before, so I expect him to do it again. Predicted time: 15:50
  8. Brooks Williams; without any other names jumping out at me, I see a spot with my name on it. Predicted time: 16:31
  9. From here on, it's a crap-shoot...
  10. ---
Who'd I miss?!



brownie said...

John T. Sharp, 12:58. And that's on top of volunteering at the aid stations.

GZ said...

So what do the 50 mile splits look like there?

Anton said...

I'm calling Hal-Pops over the Sharmanator. Just a hunch. I think your predicted times look about right (just flip the players, though it pains me to think Hal will best my PR on that course!).

Brooks, don't go through 40mi faster than 6hr and you'll get that 16:30 no problem.

eric said...

Sharman's got a HUGE target on his back, and Hal can stay cool and calm all day.
HK for the win.

Brooks said...

GZ: Sharman went through 50 miles in 6:10 last year.

I'm thinking I'll be in the 7:00-7:15 range for 50.

Anonymous said...

What about Jay Aldous? He ran three sub 16:00 100's last fall. He's not Sharman or Koerner, but he's consistently brisk....

Brooks said...

Good call. I'm not familiar with the name, but with cred like that, I'll put him in the Tony Clark range. Definitely top-10!

Anton said...

Jay ran a 13:52 100 (age 50+ world record!) at Desert Solstice in December. Seems like he should def be top-5.

Anonymous said...

No biggie but I think you missed Andreas Falk, he'll probably finish around 16 hrs.

Rob said...

Minus the Sharman DNF, you were just about spot on for those predictions. Exact for Hal. Seems like the only guy you underestimated was that 4th place guy. Hell of a run Brooks!

irun4pain said...

My predictions were (pre-Hal entry):

1. Ian
2. Karl
3. Jay
4. Oswaldo
5. Me (J Finger)
6. Josh K.
7. Dan Vega
8. Scott Eppelman
9. Tony Clark
10. Any # of others (including Brooks).

Sorry man...Didn't know of you would do in the 100. You rocked it though!!!